Ivanova O.I. - Forecasting Models of Characteristics of the Spring High Water of the Forest-steppe and Mountain-wood Rivers of Middle Siberia

Written by Erkin Turdibaev

Tuesday, 12 July 2016

The description of water balance relationships for forecasting the spring flow is based on the infiltration-capacitive model of Ye.G. Popov. In the improved version of the current model the water losses due to the evaporation during the snowmelt period, the water losses to the evaporation and infiltration during the period of the recession of the sheet inflow to the river-bed network are taken into account. Approximations of the forecasting equations for three different types of the distribution of the water holding capacity of the river catchment (hyperbolic, exponential and degrees types) are presented. The traditional approach takes into consideration the variable parameter of the water-holding capacity, which depends on the characteristics of the moistening and freezing of the soil. Besides the traditional approach, in this model the approach suggested by D.A. Burakov is realized and implemented.  In this approach the depth of the initial filling of the water-holding capacity is taken into account. This water layer is in the frozen state before the beginning of the snowmelt in the conditions of Siberia. It plays a role in the forming of the spring flows as the upper layer of soils thaws after the snow melts. A complex analysis of the elements of the spring flow is conducted by examples of small watersheds of the river Bolshaya Urya -village Malaya Urya (the catchment area is 1150 km2), the river Kacha village Emelianovo (the catchment area is 561 km2) and the river Kacha Krasnoyarsk city (the catchment area is 1250 km2). In the Asian part of Russia the information about the depth of the soil freezing, soil temperature and soil moisture is limited and sometimes unreliable. In this case, the indirect characteristics (predictors) of the water absorption of the river basin play the main role in the forecasting practice. The search of the possible combination made it possible to provide an aggregate index of the conditions of the soil moistening and soil freezing, which takes into account the water yield coefficients of the autumn flow, the monthly average air temperature and the snow depth in the beginning of winter. The equations of the long-term forecast of the spring flow of the relevant rivers are presented. Parameters of these equations were calculated using optimization procedures. The short-term forecasts of the daily water discharge and water level are calculated based on the conceptual model of the forming of the river flow. D.A. Burakov developed this model for the rivers of Siberia. To optimize the model, satellite information is used showing the dynamics of the area of snow cover of the river basins during the snow melting. Download (in Russian) (pdf, 355- kB) Source: http://cyberleninka.ru/

 

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