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Ismayylov G.H., Muraschenkova N.V. - Variability of the Flow of the Volga River in the First Half of the XXI Century With Regard to Possible Climate Change |
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Written by Erkin Turdibaev
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Tuesday, 08 August 2017 |
The article discusses the assessment of changes in mean annual flow of the Volga River in the first half of the XXI century. To do this, the authors used the developed by them probabilistic method of estimating the flow and the scenarios results of climate models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. In order to use the results of the general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean the authors propose a system of equations of river flow connection with the defining climatic factors. Using the scenarios results of the climate models CMIP 3 for the beginning of the first half of the XXI century (2011 -2030) and for the middle of the first half of the XXI century (2041-2060.) as well as developed by the authors the equation of the connection of the river flow with its defining climatic factors there are obtained mean annual flow values for individual water management districts of the Volga river basin and the basin in whole. According to the investigation data based on the variant calculations of forecasting methods the average long-term value of the Volga river basin runoff changes in whole for the period 2011-2030 from 5 to 10 %o, and for the period 2041-2060 from 6 to 14 %. These results can be compared with the data of other researches. The analogical results were obtained as a result of generalization of materials on six large rivers including for the basin of the Volga river. Thus, for example, for the Volga river for the period 2011-2030 according to one of the scenarios flow changing is planned from -2 to +5%.
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