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Kuzmenko YA.V., Lisetskiy F.N., Pichura V.I. - Evaluation and Prediction of Small Rivers Flow in Anthropogenic Impacts and Climate Change |
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Written by Erkin Turdibaev
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Friday, 03 March 2017 |
Genetic periods functioning river system before and after the man-made changes were identified; piecewise-regression model of river flow under the influence of climate has been created; model of neural networks to predict the temporal flow of the river, depending on climatic factors was developed, the prediction results of the change in runoff small river to 2022 were obtained. It is established that determines the factor of formation of small rivers is the climate, especially the combination of the years of heat and moisture conditions in the territory of the basin. These pressures determines the direction and strength of the influence of climatic factors on the dynamics of the flow. Over the last thirty years has increased the response in a small river flow dynamics on climatic factors (0.86 to 0.90). Converting river radically transforming characteristics of the river system and is irreversible. With predictive neural network model can not only recreate the overall dynamics of river flow, but also to consider the contribution of individual factors in the current and expected mode of operation of water bodies.
Download (in Russian) (pdf, 275 kB)
Source: http://cyberleninka.ru/
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